Take a look at the latest poll from Ohio. The top number, which has Kerry over Bush 48-45, is nice but not spectacular for Democrats. The real beauty is in the poll internals. Bush's Favorable-Unfavorables are at 41-50. Kerry's Favorable-Unfavorables are at 51-42. Sure, the Republicans have a convention coming up, but with their candidate at -9 and ours at +9 they have a lot of ground to make up. And it's really hard for Bush to win without Ohio, which he carried in '00.
Oh, and if you haven't yet, you might want to bookmark the Electoral Vote calculator. We're also doing well in Florida, though I'm kind of worried about Jeb Bush disenfranchising black people and Diebold screwing with the voting machines.