Sunday, June 18, 2006

When Intimidation Backfires

You get these right-wingers claiming that the American demonstration of "resolve" is a good consequence of the Iraq War, the idea apparently being that we'll be better able to intimidate bad countries into changing their ways.  If we actually were getting these benefits, I'd be impressed -- there's plenty of ways I'd want to make North Korea and Iran change their behavior.  But look what's actually happened.   North Korea looks to be test-launching long-range missiles, breaking a moratorium on launches that started in 1999, and Iran has moved ahead with its nuclear program.  There's still plenty of hope for diplomacy in Iran's case, but we're in a much worse bargaining position than we were in three years ago. 

Rather than frightening other countries into knuckling under, we scared them into improving their nuclear defenses against future American aggression, making the world a much more dangerous place.  Just one more reason to avoid wanton invasions. 

Saturday, June 17, 2006

In Philly again

Back from North Carolina, where I met with many old friends, smart UNC kids whom my brother knows, the previously mentioned girl who bites, and fellow Edwards fan Bora, who convinced me to crosspost more things from the Ezra-blog to this one. On that note, I thought this was amusing enough to share:
Bush_listening

Via Boltgirl.

Thursday, June 15, 2006

In defense of biting

Yesterday afternoon, I met a pretty drunk girl who bit, hit, hugged, and kissed me within five minutes of meeting me, in that order, and without any substantial provocation. It's interesting how an early bite can put me at ease -- once a girl has bitten me, nothing I do in the ordinary course of interacting with her will count as a major faux pas, and it's good to be guaranteed against that possibility. Most guys are probably not like me, so I don't generally recommend this tactic to women, but it has its advantages in some situations.

Thursday, June 08, 2006

Telcos and travel plans

I've got a piece on Net Neutrality up at Ezra's blog. He's going to be off at YearlyKos until Sunday, so the weekend officially starts now! At least, for blogging-at-Ezra's-site purposes. The post should also appear at the One America Blog sometime soon, except without minor edits including the "invisible hand" joke that occurred to me after I mailed it off to Edwards' staff people.

In other news, I'm going to North Carolina, where I and my brother Robin will be from this Friday to next Friday or so. Tentative travel plans are to return to Philly at some future point, then visit Charlottesville VA, and then go to Washington DC until July 5, when I fly back to Austin. Readers in these areas who are interested in hanging out are welcome to contact me.

Tuesday, June 06, 2006

Abstinence suckers

I'd put the over/under on the number of jokes Amanda can get out of this item at 4.5. And yes, the flavor is cherry.

via righteousbabe at DailyKos

[Update]: Amanda comes through.

Friday, June 02, 2006

Jesus is running a little late

My friend John Ku, who was raised in a cult, describes the time that Jesus didn't come [link dead]. (I suppose there are lots of times when Jesus didn't come, but this is the time they were expecting him, and he didn't show up anyway.)

Saturday, May 27, 2006

Morality is Objective (And People Are Wrong)

(I posted this at Ezra's, but it's philosophical enough to post here.)

A week is an eternity in the political blogosphere, but it's a short time in the world of philosophy. Or at least, that's my excuse for responding now to a couple of Matt Yglesias' week-old posts on the objectivity of morality. Some things Matt says in the course of arguing against the existence of objective moral facts that really don't have much bearing on the question of objectivity. In fact, many of his criticisms apply just as well to areas of inquiry where objective truth is clearly at stake. Let's first consider this:
Sometimes, you face a question that you think has an objective answer like "How much should we care about budget deficits?" What you're supposed to do in those circumstances is look at the evidence in an even-handed and objective way. The big issues of political commitment don't work like that at all. Siegel didn't go learn Arabic fluently, then read the Koran (it says you should only read it in Arabic), then study the works of Sayyid Qutb and other Islamist commentators, and then objectively weigh those arguments against the great names of liberal political thought in an open-minded and unprejudiced way before deciding, "Yes, those Islamists are all wrong!" That would be dumb, and nobody lives their life like that.
Matt's pointing out that the way we usually arrive at moral beliefs is quite different from the way we ought to arrive at beliefs on the empirical questions that drive public policy. That seems right. But it's important to note that very few people -- Matt and Ezra perhaps, but not most of us -- actually arrive at their public policy views in much the same way. Most people don't wonk out on pdfs from Brookings, seek out the best arguments from all sides, and make well-considered decisions. Emotional judgments from gut feelings, sadly, play an outsized role in determining many ordinary people's beliefs on issues where there are objective right and wrong answers. You don't even need to go to normatively laden questions of the "How much should we care" variety to see this. You can just look at ordinary, purely descriptive questions -- "Do tax cuts stimulate the economy more or less than spending increases?" or "Which candidate is more electable?" to find places where many people's emotional attitudes (for example, their feelings about taxation or about the candidates) determine what sorts of beliefs they form.

Does this tear away the objectivity from facts of public policy? I don't think so. All it says is that people are forming their public policy beliefs in an unreliable and untrustworthy way. All the more reason to recognize the possibility of error within ourselves, and dedicate some energy to thinking clearly, considering well-collected empirical data, and listening carefully to all sides. Similarly, the fact that people tend to make emotionally driven moral judgments doesn't mean that morality isn't objective. It just means that we're likely to make mistakes, and so we need to understand that our intuitive moral judgments could be wrong. Objective truth could still be out there -- we're just bad at finding it.

This attitude towards moral belief underlies my own approach to the issue. I think that people very often go wrong in their beliefs about the objective moral facts. How do I separate the true moral beliefs from the false ones? I first try to determine what sorts of processes of belief-formation are generally reliable, considering many examples where morality isn't at stake. Then I look at all the ways that people form their beliefs about which states of affairs are good, and which actions are right. I throw out the beliefs that are generated by unreliable processes. Particularly, I throw out the beliefs formed by having some emotionally-driven attitude towards a state of affairs, and thus coming to believe that there's some objective goodness or badness out there in that state of affairs. All that's left is the goodness of pleasure and the badness of displeasure, which can be discovered without any emotions standing between us and our pleasure or displeasure. You can know that your sensations of black are sensations of darkness without any emotion standing between you and the black, and similarly, you can know that your experiences of pleasure are experiences of goodness without any emotion standing between you and the pleasure. Looking at your experiences and determining what they're like, with no emotional interference, is a reliable way of knowing. So the objective goodness of pleasure and the objective badness of displeasure are all we can know of objective goodness and badness.

Another related point Matt makes:

Islamists do a lot of stuff that seems cruel and repugnant -- sawing off peoples' heads, for example or stoning gay people to death. Is that "really" wrong? Do I need to check? Deduce it from first principles? If I can't come up with an airtight argument against head-sawing within the next fifteen minutes, does that throw everything into doubt? Again, that's silly; nobody thinks that.
The fact that we don't usually require airtight arguments for moral conclusions doesn't really bear much on the question of objectivity. Consider the easier questions of physics -- you don't need to determine the gravitational constant in order to know that when you shoot a basketball, it'll travel in an arc, and eventually come down. But physics is an objective matter, if anything is. So there's nothing incompatible between our being able to get it right on a fair number of the objective questions, and saying that we haven't got a good theory worked out to decide the hard cases and explain everything. (Of course, once we do figure out the gravitational constant and build our theory, we can do all sorts of neat stuff.) My point here shouldn't be taken as a rejection of the idea that we're often wrong, or unjustified, in our moral judgments. All I'm saying is that it's possible to occasionally make correct judgments while lacking any developed theory to explain them.

There's this, from Matt's next post:

When you argue with people, you try to appeal to shared sentiments, point out alleged inconsistencies in the other guy's position, and so on and so forth. What underlies the possibility of discussion isn't objective moral truth but the fact that, say, Jonah and I have a vast stockpile of things we agree about and one tries to resolve controversies with appeals to stuff in that store of previous agreement.
What I want to say to Matt here is that objective moral truth actually underlies the possibility of this kind of discussion. Why is it interesting, in these discussions, to point out "alleged inconsistencies in the other guy's position"? Why would he even care about inconsistencies? Here's one answer: because his position consists of his beliefs, and when you have inconsistent beliefs, at least one of them has to be false. And why is it a problem that one is false? Because our beliefs aspire to objective truth, and when they are false, they fail.

Now, there are sophisticated versions of anti-realism that propose their own answers to these questions, like those offered by Simon Blackburn and Allan Gibbard (Matt links to one of Blackburn's books in his post). I reject their views because I reject deflationary theories of truth, but that's a fairly technical issue that I won't get into here.

One more thing to quibble with Matt about:

Sometimes you face someone whose disagreements with you are so profound that appeals to shared premises don't get you anywhere. Or you face someone who just doesn't care about doing the right thing. It's precisely because there's no way to decide who's objectively right in a dispute between, say, Adolf Hitler and liberal democracy, that we resolve the biggest moral controversies with force and threats of force rather than moral discourse and appeals to conscience. Debate and deliberation only work for the small stuff.
But this doesn't really have that much to do with objectivity either. It's an objective question whether or not Allah exists. He exists or he doesn't. But people are really set in their beliefs on this issue, some for good reasons and others for bad reasons. And this is the kind of disagreement that could conceivably (and does actually) cause people to start using force against one another. Similarly, you don't have to take morality outside the domain of objectivity to explain why people wouldn't be able to settle their differences through debate. Sometimes people just can't come to agreement on a question with an objective answer, and their desires are such that this lack of agreement seems to them like something worth fighting about.

If there's a single take-home message to all of this, here it is: Don't just throw out the idea that there are objective facts somewhere, just because people keep forming their beliefs in wacky ways, or because there's a lot of disagreement, or because everyone is fighting over stuff. It's still possible that there are objective facts, and the people just aren't being very smart about figuring them out.

Tuesday, May 16, 2006

We have been out of power too long

Matt Stoller on stopwhaling.org:

This site is pretty cool. It lets you create whale song remixes, an interesting and somewhat empowering activity.


When the creation of "whale song remixes" passes for being "somewhat empowering", Democrats really need to retake a chamber of Congress.

Wednesday, May 03, 2006

Links to Things

So here's my first piece of MP3 blogging ever. I point you to Las Cruces Jail from Two Gallants, which my sister sent to me. Awesome stuff. Go! Hear it!

Ezra's invited us to help out on the blog this week, so here's the Ezra version of my post attacking the Star Wars anti-missile program. 

Sunday, April 30, 2006

Chicken and Iran

The best thing I've got for you this weekend is my piece on calling people chickenhawks. There's also a link-rich post on Iran, and this Iran piece I wrote when I was tired.

Update: Here I enter a strongly anti-me comment thread. [link is dead]

Thursday, April 27, 2006

Two Americas at the Voting Booth

It's my new post at the Edwards blog, discussing long lines at urban polling places.

[Note from 2019: the Edwards blog has long since vanished, so the link has been removed and the story is gone.]

Saturday, April 22, 2006

The common good

I have a big thing on Mike Tomasky's big thing about the common good at the Ezra blog.

Saturday, April 15, 2006

Strategic voting and more

We've got a conference going on, so I put my piece on strategic voting up early. All you Brown kids, vote for Laffey!

Thursday, April 13, 2006

Disintermediation? right here.

Back when Ezra did his big Gore article, I wrote a response about how disintermediation (candidates taking their message straight to the people in a way that gets around the media filter, often by using the internet) wasn't anything particularly astonishing or unique to Gore.

JRE-TV is John Edwards' attempt at disintermediation, and it's pretty nicely done. The first episode is about John Edwards going to San Francisco to rally the hotel workers' union. There's some nice surprises, including Danny Glover and some old-time Bush-bashing. I'm looking forward to more of this.

Wednesday, April 12, 2006

Externalism and Intentionalism are compatible

In his argument against intentionalism, Matt Yglesias makes the conflation between semantic internalism and moderate intentionalism that wrongly turned me off from semantic externalism throughout my second year of grad school. Here are the views being regarded as incompatible:

semantic externalism: the belief that the meaning of a term is determined, in whole or in part, by factors external to the speaker.

moderate intentionalism: the belief that the meaning of a term is determined by the speaker's intention.

The key point is that externalism can apply to the contents of intentions too. When we're trying to determine the content of an intention, we might go to factors outside the speaker. Suppose I have an intention to kiss the cute girl whose name I didn't get at the bar the other night. Let's say her name turns out to be Jenny. Jenny has an identical twin, Katie, who wasn't there, but who would have created the exact same internal representations in me if she had been there in Jenny's place. So which girl do I intend to kiss? Obviously, Jenny. Now, there's nothing internal to me that differentiates between the two of them. But because of a fact external to me (that my mental representations were caused by Jenny and not Katie) I can still intend to kiss the one girl instead of the other. When I meet both of them, I may not know which one I am intending to kiss. But there still is a right answer.

If externalism can be true of the contents of intentions in this way, there's no problem reconciling semantic externalism and intentionalism. Just drop the externalist stuff into the content of the linguistic intention.

Tuesday, April 11, 2006

Empathy and imaginative resistance

People who do aesthetics are often familiar with what's called "imaginative resistance" -- the fact that it's hard to imagine counterfactual states of affairs where acts immoral in our world are moral, simply because different moral rules hold there. Yesterday Justin and I were discussing counterpossible states of affairs where the epistemic norms were different -- in particular, where falling prey to the Monte Carlo fallacy or engaging in wishful thinking were the ways to form justified beliefs.

I've found that the best way to overcome imaginative resistance and get into these examples was to imagine people who would come to hold bizarre views of norms, and try to enter their state of mind in a sort of empathic way. For the wishful thinking case, I'd imagine a sort of crackpot Romantic from the 1800s who was against rationality and thought that the best part of human beings was in their emotions and desires. I can see this guy accepting a view of epistemic norms where wishful thinking was the right way to believe, and sort of get into his perspective through some kind of act of empathy.

Saturday, April 08, 2006

This weekend's election commentary

This weekend, I proudly reprise my role as a shill for the Democratic leadership. The beneficiary of my slavish party-worship is Chuck Schumer of New York.

I also posted a new version of my immigration piece from the Edwards blog.

And there's congratulations to Harry Reid for further Bill First pwnage.

The next piece of work will be on 2006's strategic voting opportunities, I think. (Um, maybe not. We'll see.)

By the way, here's the latest thing I wrote for John Edwards [dead link] a couple days ago, on the minimum wage.

Friday, April 07, 2006

Open relationships

Richard has a bunch of things to say, and I particularly liked this:

it’s a deeply pernicious cultural framework that leads one to only value a romantic partner insofar as they might eventually become one’s future spouse.

Another issue that causes people to be dismissive towards open relationships is the idea that if your partner is having sex with someone else, it should be some kind of affront to you. Personally, I don't see why this is the case, especially if you're temporarily geographically separated from each other. Certainly, if you made some kind of promise to have an exclusive relationship, there's the fact that the other person is taking their promises to you lightly. But in the absence of such promises, nothing bad is happening. (A corollary of this is that it can be unwise to make promises of fidelity to give your partner security against such an affront.)

On a more personal note, I'm quite comfortable with the idea of my girlfriend having sex with lots of other guys, especially if I'm unavailable for some reason. (If the guys were jerks, there might be a problem, but assuming that's not the case, we're fine.) Girls are cool, and sex is cool. So girls who have a lot of sex are awesome, and I could happily be in a stable relationship with one of them.

Tuesday, April 04, 2006

Johnnyblogging

Over at the John Edwards blog [now gone], I've posted a set of interesting and important immigration factoids.

Sunday, April 02, 2006

states, red and blue

This weekend, there's a controversial post about how there are states to be won in the South, and a post drawing attention to how red-state Democratic governors are popular while blue-state Dems are less popular.